We have told investors and traders worldwide what it would take the start the rally and this here has to stop and bottom out for the markets to look forward as they have no clarity and therefore the selling keeps up.
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At Oppenheimer's Vail Semi Summit, firm's meetings with semi cap equip companies (LRCX, TER) suggest that rock-bottom service levels in Q1 (Mar) have made it a hair-trigger for top-line stabilization in Q2 (Jun), as foundry utilization rates recover.
As a follow-up to their upgrade of VRGY (on 02/11 @ $8.31) as a potential inventory replenishment trade, they also have identified LRCX as a potential beneficiary.
They say potential, as foundry wafer start forecasts have been known to fall victim to the macro shrink-ray in this environment.
owever, recent checks consistently suggest foundry (TSMC) utilization rate recovery of +12%-20% Q/Q in Q2, with wafer orders led by QCOM, MediaTek, even NVDA. Given this, firm would be inclined to turn more constructive on KLAC, too, but for us, KLAC's outsized dependence on INTC for hitting its rev guidance in the Mar qtr is the rub. Given this divide between KLAC/LRCX (LRCX has zero INTC risk), firm would sell KLAC for LRCX.
Prepare yourself for the "New Economy"