The Daily Telegraph reports that Hungary's forint fell to an all-time low on Monday, and Poland's zloty slumped to the lowest in five years, on plunging industrial output.
Half of all loans to the private sector in Poland are in foreign currencies so borrowers face a severe debt shock after the 40% fall of the zloty against the euro since August. The mushrooming crisis has already started to spill over into Germany's debt markets, lifting credit default swaps on German five-year bonds to a record 70 basis points.
A report by Moody's released on Tuesday said the region's banks were coming under severe stress as the property bust combines with a rising debt burden. "Local currency depreciation is a major risk to East Europe banks," it said. There are contagion worries for Western banks that have lent $1.74 trillion to the ex-Soviet bloc -- split between $1 trillion in foreign loans and $700bn in local currency debt through subsidiaries.
The region needs to roll over $400 bln in foreign debts this year, equivalent to a third of total GDP, raising concerns that it may need a massive rescue programme from the International Monetary Fund and the European institutions.
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