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SMF Blogs > SMF Market Summary > August 2008
Gapping down

 
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FCEL -15.4%, WSM -7.0%, CWTR -6.3%, TIVO -5.8%, GA -5.7% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth)... M&A news: ALDN -3.5% (rejects Vector Capital's unsolicited proposal).

Select airlines ticking lower with crude higher
: LCC -4.0% , UAUA -3.8% , CAL -3.0% , AMR -2.7% , DAL -1.2%... Select telecom stocks showing weakness: CHU -5.4% , CHL -5.0% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), NOK -1.3%... Other news: ACH -3.8% and TS -1.9% (checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: GILD -2.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), KO -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Posted: 8/28/2008 10:44:52 AM by StockMarketFunding | with 0 comments


 
SMF Floor Traders Midday Summary: Major averages just off session highs
 
 
Everyone gets there rocks off  the shelf today as they set things up for the SMF Traders, as we have said in the past few weeks that you are going to get the chance of a life time to buy up the bottoms
 
The stock market is trading just below its session highs on very light volume. The major averages had a sluggish start as strong Durable Goods Orders (1.3% vs. 0.0% consensus; ex-trans: 0.7% vs. -0.7% consensus) offset a spike in oil prices. October crude oil ($117.59 +1.32) touched its session high of $119.63 around 9:15ET after the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association said that Tropical Storm Gustav is on track to hit Louisiana early Monday as a Category 4 hurricane.

Profit taking in the dollar also lent support to crude. But the major averages were able to rally over the first hour of today's session as investors awaited the weekly inventory statistics from the Dept. of Energy at 10:35ET. Crude showed a draw of 177K barrels compared to a build of 1.1 mln, though that bullish number was somewhat offset by a smaller than expected draw in gasoline (-1.179 mln vs. -2.45 mln consensus). While crude showed a muted reaction to the data, the major averages actually began coming in at that time.

Then just after 12:00ET, the major averages rallied to session highs, led by the financial sector. Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently +106 to ~11518; Nasdaq is currently +26 to ~2388; S&P 500 is currently +10 to ~1282... From a technical perspective, The major indices are all holding onto a majority of their substantial gains moving through midday. We are seeing a slight pullback, or countertrend move, typical price action after a morning surge. The Dow (INDU) tested daily resistance (R2) @ 11550 noted in today's technical take, topping out @ 11554. We would expect a retest this afternoon on the resumption of the trend. Market internals confirm the bullish price action as TRIN levels on both NASDAQ & NYSE remain well depressed below 1.0 indicating the absence of sellers. Advancers are outpacing decliners by a margin of nearly 3.5:1 on NYSE with sector strength most noticeable in homebuilders, coals, and financial issues... The Bond market trading modestly lower overnight before tanking at the open of pit trading as futures were indicating a higher open. The 10-yr is currently -03/32 3.787%... In Commodities, Oct crude ($117.59 +$1.32) continues to trend lower as traders seem to be focusing on Hurricane Gustav, and despite the move lower, the storm is still viewed as a potential threat to oil operations in the Gulf. What is typically more market moving for crude is the weekly inventory data, which showed a slight draw for crude (177K vs consensus build of 1100K) while gasoline showed a smaller than expected draw (1179K vs consensus draw of 2450k). This data, however, caused crude to react minimally... In Europe, mkts rose thanks to an oil-powered rally in British stocks and a surprise rise in U.S. durable goods data, which suggested that the world's largest economy may avoid recession. FTSE closed +1.1%; DAX closed -0.3%; CAC closed +0.1%... Note in Asia, the Nikkei closed -0.2%, the Hang Seng closed +1.9% and the Shanghai Composite closed -0.3%... On the Earnings calendar, 9 cos are confirmed to report today after the close. Tomorrow before the open, 19 cos are confirmed to report including ENER, VIP, FRED and SHLD... On the Economic calendar nothing remains on the schedule for today. Tomorrow, GDP-prelim, Chain Deflator-Prelim and Initial Claims data are scheduled to be released at 8:30ET.

SMF Traders: NASDAQ 100 (NDX) leaders & laggards heading into final hour of trading

 

 

NDX Final Hour Strength:
FMCN +6.5%, NTAP +6.0%, JOYG +4.2%, STLD +3.6%, SNDK +3.5%, LBTYA +3.5%, FWLT +3.2%, LEAP +3.0%, AKAM +2.8%

NDX Final Hour Weakness:
AMLN -25.6%, UAUA -11.2%, JAVA -6.6%, BIIB -2.1%, MRVL -1.5%, CELG -1.3%

 
SMF Traders Sentiment indicators -- Market volatility has moved lower with equities higher on a light volume trading day
 
Broad market volatility is lower with the stock market climbing higher for the second consecutive day (Dow +93, SPX +10 and Nas +26). Market volatility initially opened flat as the averages had a sluggish start with strong Durable Goods Orders offsetting a spike in oil prices. The "fear gauges" have moved lower off the open as the major averages have trended higher for most of the day. The VIX is currently -0.79 (-3.9%) at 19.70 while the more tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is -0.87 (-3.6%) at 23.16. The CBOE put/call ratio is currently at 0.78 (lowest level in almost 3 weeks), indicating higher call trading than put trading.
Posted: 8/27/2008 2:06:43 PM by StockMarketFunding | with 0 comments


S&P 500 futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8.

Futures suggest a flat start to the trading day as a drop in oil prices is unable to lift the market.  Anadarko Petroleum (APC) authorized a share repurchase program up to $5 billion, which at its current price represents roughly 18% of outstanding common shares. 

On a related note, Coach (COH) established a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion.  In earnings news, American Eagle (AEO) topped estimates by a penny for its second quarter, but issued downside guidance for the third quarter. In commodity trading, crude prices are down 1.3% to $113.60 per barrel as the dollar rallies 1.0%.

 
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DAKT +11.9%, CHS +10.4%, BIG +3.8%... M&A news: SRVY +7.0% (declares proposal from a strategic buyer to be a superior proposal, shareholders to receive $17.50 per share in cash)... Select mortgage/financial names modestly rebounding: RDN +5.7% (expands field sales force by ~30% to date), ABK +5.0%, FNM +5.0%, FRE +4.9%, LEH +1.3%... Select airlines ticking higher on lower crude and strength in dollar: LCC +5.4%, JBLU +3.6%, UAUA +2.5%, AMR +2.4%, CAL +1.6%... Other news: CLNE +9.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SATC +9.4% (announces they will deliver 20MW of 500kilowatt PowerGate Plus grid-tie commercial photovoltaic inverters as part of new agreement), NVAX +3.7% (announces 'favorable' results from Phase I/IIa pandemic influenza vaccine program), ELN +3.5% (continued strength following yesterday afternoon's 7% surge), MDRX +3.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), COH +2.8% (establishes new $1 bln share repurchase program), APC +2.4% (announces $5 bln share repurchase program), ASML +1.8% (still checking)... Analyst comments: CRM +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).

Futures are showing little direction this morning as they trade around unchanged levels. Newsflow has been extremely slow as investors await a batch of economic data this morning and FOMC Minutes this afternoon.

One piece of data already released was the S&P/CaseSchiller Home Price Index, which declined 15.9% y/y in Jun, slightly better than expectations of a decline of 16.2%. Oct crude oil ($115.82 +0.71) has shown some direction this morning, however, initially declining to $112.36 on a stronger dollar, which hit a new 6-month and fresh 2-year high against the euro and pound, respectively, before regaining its losses around 8:00ET.

Dow futures are currently +5; Nasdaq futures are currently -1.0; S&P futures are currently -0.1. 


The Bond mkt did little overnight on extremely thin volume as traders lacked conviction following yesterday's strong rally. But treasuries began selling off modestly at the open of pit trading at 8:20ET. The 10-yr is currently -04/32 to 3.801%. Looking ahead on the Fed calendar, FOMC Minutes from the Aug 5 meeting, where it left rates steady at 2.00%, are due out at 14:00ET.

In
Europe, mining and metals stocks led mkts lower for a second consecutive session. FTSE is currently -1.2%; DAX is currently +0.1%; CAC is currently -0.5%. In Asia, mkts declined, led lower by financial cos on speculation of increased credit mkt losses. Nikkei closed -0.8%; Hang Seng closed -0.2%; Shanghai Composite closed -2.6%... Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: CRM at Citi; Downgrades: BRCM at Oppenheimer, NT at Lehman; Initiations: V (Outperform) at William Blair... On the Economic calendar, APSG, BGP, DY, HAIN and JCG are confirmed to report today after the close... On the Economic calendar, Aug Consumer Confidence (consensus 53.0; prior 51.9), Jul New Home Sales (consensus 525K; prior 530K) and the Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (consensus -10; prior -16) are all due out at 10:00ET.

SMF Traders ETF Positions
 
 
Late Day Sector ETF Leaders:
Nat gas- UNG +5.3%, Energy- XLE +1.7%, IYE +1.5%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1.6%, Heating Oil- UHN +1.4%, Gas- UGA +1.4%, Steel- SLX +1.0%, Utilities- XLU +1.0%

Late Day Sector ETF Laggards:
Base Meals- DBB -1.9%, Clean Energy- PBW -1.8%, Solar Power- TAN -1.7%, KWT -1.3%, Homebuilders- XHB -1.6%, Semis- IGW -1.1%, SMH -1.0%

Posted: 8/26/2008 8:55:52 AM by StockMarketFunding | with 0 comments


Midday Summary:
 
 
Major averages remain deep in negative territory, just off session lows

The major averages remain significantly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq almost 2% lower midday. The market opened to the downside this morning, with financials leading the move lower, on news that South Korean regulators told the Korea Development Bank to take a cautious approach before making an acquisition of an overseas bank after the company expressed interest in Lehman Brothers (-4.2%). Also in the financial sector, Credit Suisse cut its earnings estimates on AIG (-4.5%), while Fitch Ratings put the insurance giant's credit ratings on negative watch.

About a half-hour after the open, a better-than-expected July Existing Home Sales number (5.0 mln vs. consensus of 4.91 mln) showed a 3.1% increase in units vs. the prior month. However, the major averages showed a muted response to the report, and actually extended its' losses in broad-based fashion less than an hour after the release.

Further bolstering the losses, crude oil rebounded off its morning lows into positive territory just before 12:00 ET. It has been a relatively quiet day in terms of corporate earnings or news, but it's worth noting that Fannie Mae (+5%) and Freddie Mac (+18%) are very strong today, after Reuters reported that Freddie Mac's $2 bln bill sale drew stronger demand and interest rates rose compared with the most recent sales of the same maturities. Dow is currently -215 to ~11412; Nasdaq is currently -47 to ~2368; S&P is currently -23 to ~1269... From a technical perspective, the major indices are all trending down moving through midday with minimal counter-trend bounces seen. Volume is very light helping to exaggerate the propensity of today's down move. The Russell 2K (RUT) index is the only major average to breach last weeks 722.50 low. The S&P 500 (SPX) has crucial support seen @ 1260 with last weeks low @ 1261 but will need to break daily S4 @ 1265 noted in today's technical take.

TRIN levels on NASDAQ (COMPQ) are exceptionally high, currently nearing the 2.5 level and highlighting the heavy selling pressure which may persist throughout the remainder of the session. Breath remains very bearish heading into afternoon trading with both exchanges posting almost 4:1 decliners over advancers... The Bond market moved modestly higher in overnight trading and spiked sharply at the open of pit trading as equity futures indicated a lower open. After the sharp move higher, the 10-yr has moved in a tight range all day long. The 10-yr is currently +25/32 3.776%.

In Commodities, Oct crude ($114.25 -0.34) remains lower in a quiet day of trading, near the unchanged mark, midday after attempting to comeback off of session lows of $113.68... In Europe, mkts fell, led by financials amid ongoing worries about the health of the sector and energy majors as crude oil prices extended the previous session's steep slide. FTSE closed for holiday; DAX closed -0.7%; CAC closed -1.0%.

Note in Asia, the Nikkei closed +1.7%, the Hang Seng closed +3.5% and the Shanghai Composite closed +0.3%... On the Earnings calendar, 0 cos are confirmed to report today after the close. Tomorrow before the open, 10 cos are confirmed to report.

On the Economic calendar nothing remains on the schedule for today, nor is anything scheduled tomorrow before the open.
Posted: 8/23/2008 7:53:16 PM by StockMarketFunding | with 0 comments