2008 Year in Review: SMF PRO TRADERS Special Training session all alert get on board now
SMF PRO TRADERS
We are going to be talking why most people can be wrong and how we are going to gage the markets as most of the rat head pros are not getting it right again. We will be doing our work around the earning season and many other market factors that come into play.
2008 was a historic year in the financial markets. The year unfolded in ways very few expected, with considerable strain on world financial systems leading to unprecedented government and central bank intervention and stimulus. All this resulted in the worst stock market performance since the Great Depression, extreme volatility and economic strain that will continue to impact the financial markets in the coming year. Although 2008 will go down as a year many want to forget, we wanted to provide a brief recap of the events that shaped the year, and put the performance of the markets in context.
The story is well known by now -- the financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage collapse in 2007 evolved and escalated in 2008. The collapse of the subprime market spread to the rest of the mortgage market, resulting in the locking up of the asset backed securities markets and unprecedented spreads on credit derivatives. Increased delinquencies and defaults caused impaired asset values and a series of massive write-downs at financial institutions that bought and held these assets. The vicious cycle of declining asset values, balance sheet write-downs and diminishing liquidity in the markets that needed it most weighed heavily on the market.
Eventually, the balance sheet strains and risk (perceived or real) were too much for some companies and investors to withstand, leading to a crisis of confidence in financial institutions and a reshaping of the system they made up. In the end, several major institutions collapsed and a wave of others consolidated within the sector, most notably:
StockMarketFunding.com had told all our clients back in 2007 long before any trading started in 2008! Make sure you tell all your friends to show up for one of the most informative FREE LIVE SEMINARS ever given.
• Countrywide: On Jan. 11 it was announced that Countrywide Financial would be acquired by Bank Of America
• Bear Stearns: On March 17 Bear Stearns failed. The stock had been the subject of much speculation prior to its failure, and company management defended the company's standing until the end. The collapse of Bear led to a confidence crisis in other investment banks and financial institutions.
• IndyMac: On July 14 mortgage bank IndyMac was seized by federal regulators
• Fannie & Freddie: On Sept. 8 mortgage GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into a conservatorship, effectively wiping out the value of their equity
• Lehman, AIG & Merrill: On Sept. 15, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, AIG was bailed out by the government and Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch. Lehman represents the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.
• WaMu: On Sept. 25, JPMorgan bought the banking assets of Washington Mutual after the bank collapsed and was taken over by the FDIC. WaMu represents the biggest bank failure in history.
• Wachovia: On Sept. 29, it was announced that Citigroup would acquire Wachovia, although Wells Fargo eventually outbid Citigroup.
As financial institutions came under pressure, the rest of the market fell as a systemic deleveraging and valuation reset took place. While the financial sector was clearly the focal point of 2008, the bursting of the commodity bubble led to significant declines in commodity related groups as well. This is notable because commodities acted as a safe haven area in the early part of 2008, offering investors a temporary place to hide from the fallout in financials and the rest of the market.
Looking at the broader market, major equity averages are set to post the largest yearly decline since the Great Depression, with the major U.S. indices down 35-42%. Despite the drastic decline, it could have been worse, as the averages managed to rebound ~20% off yearly lows after dropping to nearly half of their value from the beginning of the year.
The international markets followed the U.S. lower with Russia (Micex -67%), China (Shanghai -65%) and the UK (FTSE -53%) stacking up as the worst performers among major international averages. Given the worldwide market turmoil, volatility indices soared with sharp spikes reflecting investor panic/fear as the major averages experienced declines and wild swings not seen in years. The VIX hit historic highs based on its new calculation, but remained below comparable levels seen during the crash of '87 (based on its old calculation).
Things have quieted down in December, with an average daily swing in the Dow of ~300 points compared to ~430 points in November, and ~590 points in October. For the most part the latter portion of the year experienced whipsaw action with the largest quarterly point decline ever in the S&P and Dow, with the most pain being felt in September and October.
Looking Ahead
Most are hoping for some stabilization in 2009, as the effects of the policies and actions put in place in 2008 begin to work their way into the system. The environment has a "back to basics" feel to it, with institutions and investors moving away from leverage and exotic derivatives, and looking into fundamentally sound assets in which to invest. There will be a new administration in the White House and more economic stimulus is expected, with the remainder of the TARP likely to be deployed alongside other stimulus packages. The economy will remain at the forefront of investor concerns, as it is widely expected to be a sluggish period. Other ongoing areas of concern include credit and liquidity conditions, the housing market, commercial real estate and consumer credit.
SMF PRO TRADERS will be learning how to use the SMF Market Gage we are going to really get into the market gage that Mario Marciano told traders in March of 2008 what June of 2009 would look like and you are going to see it all play out as we have told our SMF PRO TRADERS how to use the options trading market to rip some serious hard core profits going forward as how most people are going to get left out don’t miss out sign up now and find out at STOCKMARKETFUNDING.COM
Global Indexes
U.S. Major Averages
SMF PRO TRADERS YOU ARE GOING TO LEARN HOW TO TRADE IT AND BEAT THE PROS
StockMarketFunding.com will be trading various parts of the markets at times when others will not even realize why they go higher nor will they understand how Bear Markets really work and they will not even understand how you can be in on the next big moves. Many Traders will be left out and many investors will not get in join SMF TODAY and get in why you can.
U.S. Major Averages Quarterly Data
SMF PRO TRADERS understand how we did it in 2008 now you need to learn sign up now and find out how to make money on the downside as everyone was holding and hoping SMF was making profits as the world was falling.
STOCKMARKETFUNDING.COM will show you when and how to get in and how to take advantage moving forward in 2009, 2010, 2011. Please join StockMarketFunding.com in our live trading room each day we are going to show you how to do just that make money trading options premium at the whole sale price to sell back to the retail public join SMF NOW don’t wait you will miss out on the success.
U.S. Major Averages Monthly Data
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We are watching stocks carefully as the market correction can be on its way sooner than not. If we don’t see any buying coming soon, well then we are going to have to short the other end of the market as the patterns that have been developed can leave if they don’t hold pattern 1 and that pattern 4 is equal to the downside to pattern 1.
Mario has been telling SMF Traders what to be aware of technical patterns to watch for. SMF is telling investors and traders to watch the technical formation of the last 4 weeks and stocks peaked in pattern 3 at the highs. Now we are seeing how they pull back to consolidate pattern 2 and one of the problems StockMarketFunding.com can clearly see is that stocks can set up a new round of selling if pattern 1 is broken down. That can create even more selling should this pattern get broken the sellers move in hard in the near future.
Mario Marciano has been watching the index patterns pull back on there light volume. The Dow is down 5 straight days and other indexes are following suite. The problem that new traders and even professional traders don’t clearly understand is how these Bear Market Pattern work. At SMF we clearly see how these bear market patterns work and we are educating traders, live during market hours, how to spot change in the Bear Market Patterns even as the bullish bear market set ups occur. They have to be sold a lot faster than bull market patterns and there are relationships between Bear and Bull markets. Traders lose touch on how to trade in Bear Markets.
SMF Pro Traders are on market watch right now and are learning how 2009 will set up. Hedge fund managers may return to the markets during that New Year 2009 and or sometime between January 1, 2009 to March 1, 2009. With massive selling that was not completed during the month of December 2008. During that time frame it is very likely that we are going to go down and test the lows again set in November 2008.
Our SMF Trader plays will set up during that period of time as we have been telling traders what sectors will work and how they work as our new President Elect Mr. Obama is sworn into office. Once the new administration takes control with new spending plans to help off set our down economy, we anticipate a relief rally will come once the selling has tested back down toward the lows.
We understand that a nice shake out and some good hard core selling is to set up those lows is what why we are on market watch so that we can go SHORT into that move. We are mindful of the trends; Mario Marciano will be guiding SMF PRO TRADERS who are currently being trained around the new Bear Market Trends that are not the same as last bear markets.
Earning season is coming soon again to start off 2009. We fully undrerstand the earnings cycle and SMF is currently training all new traders on how to use after hour markets to get into trades on dips that will come our way as stock trading during the earning season is an art and training is required to understand how our traders will make huge profits during that period of time. Our education programs address each new trader with economic analysis as well so they can understand the world they live in rather than just living in the world.
StockMarketFunding.com sends our best wishes to all SMF PRO TRADERS during the Christmas holiday and we hope that they spend time with their family and enjoy what they have in life because it is very important that people have a great time and share with others around them. The new Trading Year 2009 brings great opportunity to everyone who truly wants to be a great investor and trader.
SMF STAFF
Mario Marciano
Brian Plain
StockMarketFunding.com head trader Mario Marciano notes that our banking system appears to be unable to widely provide new credit to the general economy.
Mr. Marciano has been telling SMF Traders and Investors this fact since the start of 2006. We started to see a change in our credit markets and deflation and now SMF can clearly see a trend is developing and becoming a real threat.
According to StockMarketFunding.com's estimations, we have already seen household balance sheets shrink by $12.1 tln from their peak in 2007 to the present. However, in our opinion, these values still have further to fall as asset appreciation in recent years was fueled by cheaper and more freely available credit that is no longer available.
The unwind we face is not one that was one economic cycle in the making, but a product from prolonged "re-flating." The Fed's extraordinary commitment to put its balance sheet to work through its quantitative easing tactics should mitigate any further tail risks from occurring if appropriately managed, as it has in essence declared that it will provide a bid to the market where necessary.
Mr. Marciano at SMF is telling people we are just in a phase that continues the downward pressure to deflation. Not only that outside of the potential new stimulus it is totally directed to new building and overhauling our bridges and government projects that are coming.
However lets talk about the consumer what are we doing to overhauling them?
The consumer is a very important part of our economy. As their spending goes down, the effects that are caused from far less consumer spending spills over into other areas around the world and the snow ball effects from deflation begins.
This a major concern at StockMarketFunding.com and we will be updating investors on deflation. Where does it starts? What are the cause and effect of deflation going into 2009? How can I profit from the stock market in an environment such as the one we are in now?
Come join us at www.StockMarketFunding.com to learn how to really profit in the Stock Market.