Let’s not forget reality vs.
fundamentals. Here is how it works we look to see if our moves get back into the pocket to get back into move that was started a few weeks back and what our training was about, after the election things went down hard two days in a row as it was working really good for us to get that big short squeeze going for our turkey rally and then we broke down this week and it changed now we let most of the move pass us by so that we can get our footing back to the new technical take and size up the move and get back to work to analyze the retracement moves in individual stocks as Mario was doing last night by showing Dr. Tan and Bridgett how the move would work and how we all will get what is left and maybe with any luck at all we can get our trade squeezed up higher so that we can get it both ways up and pennies below the market out to March and sweep the floor of the markets.
What we do know and understand is that people were buying out of fear and disparity and that got it ripping people were on the cliff and they moved in with short covering taking it higher the rest of crowd said I better buy or die. We are back to plan 1 the way we started out so now lets get paid.
Weeks of bad news faded to black Thursday night with the Intel warning that its quarter was not only going to miss but miss horribly. That followed a warning Thursday morning by Best Buy that sales suffered a 'seismic shift,' and it was not talking to the upside. There could be some really great deals on big screen televisions right before Christmas. The point, however, is that the market has taken on all the bad news it can absorb and it said 'what the f***' as in 'Risky Business' and rallied anyway. The news was PHD the past four weeks (piled higher and deeper), yet the indices based. It got seriously ugly with the BBY and INTC news and it reversed and rallied.
We were not expecting it to hit as hard as the move was a triple down move from the last 2 weeks of selling as Mario Marciano said once it has made its move now we can get back to business and take the call side of the markets back and use it for next year to get the pennies on the dollar trades below the markets.
The indicators and the actual market moves indicate there is more upside ahead, at least up to the early November peaks on the indices. The indications are that the move should go further than that and we are inclined to err on the upside at this juncture. There are still good patterns to buy even after this move Thursday, and if this rally has legs more and more will set up. There will ultimately be a test that again casts doubt and fear just as things start to look good similar to early 2003 after the initial rally off the October market low. The market used that to build some great bases that really led the market higher when completed.
We have 6
trading days counting today to the end of next Friday options expiration as Mario said to SMF Pro Traders, the call side of the markets can get value as it was killed and most of the put side was over valued. The crowd got on board as they are trying to put in the bottom for 2008 however 2009 will be a year we will deal with and leave 2008 behind as markets are going to set up they have to show us follow through now and buyers have to show it is Thanksgiving and Christmas time on Wall Street to end the year with our higher bounces into 2009.
SMF Pro Trainer Mario Marciano already knows how it will work just as he knew it 4 weeks ago. There will be stages to this move as we have to start the count over now and do all the work to calculate the full move. Our Pro Traders will use the move to invest in 2009 earnings below the floor. Like Mario Marciano said a few weeks back the markets started out off the bottom when know one wanted in SMF was in to take it higher then the election came and punishment came there after so lets get it ready to hit it hard during this next week on the S & P 500 Trade we started out to do all last week and good thing our pro trainer understands that
options market.
To the more immediate future, Friday offers retail sales, business inventories, and Michigan sentiment. Not likely to find a lot of help there as there is not turn in the economy. The economic data is still heading lower. The market will make the turn first. This may be the first move Thursday.
The news may mute the action Friday. After a huge move it is typical for the market to pause a bit, particularly given it is Friday and there is still a lot of worry and doubt about the market.
There may be some testing back as a result, and that is not bad as well as we can look at some stocks that surged higher Thursday and get a bit better entry point.
Do you want to move in on Friday? If you worry about the move you don't. Well, that is not really true. Whenever there is a possible bottom at hand after the market has been brutalized your mind and gut tell warn you about getting in again. At that point you have to banish your feelings in favor of what the market is indicating. If you see the moves you have to suck it up, at least a bit, and go ahead and get in.
Thus if we see good moves Friday we will commit more money. We will at least commit some money, i.e. partial positions, leveraging our way into a move. There will be tests, and we can use those as well to move into more positions. With powerful reversals, however, the test can be a ways down the road.