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SMF Blogs > Technical Analysis > March 2009
Barclays lowers their S&P 500 forecast to 760

 

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Barclays says their new base case is for the S&P 500 to fall to their original stress case scenario of 640. Firm say their new best case scenario is that it holds near current levels, and new worst case is that it falls to 585, an outcome consistent with -1 standard deviations below valuation norms.

The firm says they assigned equal weightings to the various outcomes, given their lack of conviction that the conditions are in place for the bear market to end in the near term, while acknowledging that the market has overshot their base case.

The probability weighted average of these three scenarios gives a new year-end price target of 760. Firm says their initial price target of 875 was probably too high.


 

Prepare yourself for the "New Economy"


 
Posted: 3/9/2009 12:27:20 PM by StockMarketFunding | with 0 comments


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